Strategic Edge with Dara O’Kearney – Bet Sizing
One of the most common things I get asked is about bet sizing, bet frequency and board textures. I have developed three simple questions to help you get a handle on how often you should bet when it is checked to you as the preflop raiser:
- How high is the highest card
- How close together are the cards?
- How many cards are of the same suit?
When the highest card is high, that will typically bring down the bet size and increase the betting frequency. The same is true when the cards are not close together. The two are related, as it’s harder to get two cards close to a King compared to an 8, for example.
We bet small and often on boards like, for example, A82, because it’s hard for your opponent to have anything.
Compare that to a more connected flop like 873. On this flop, there are now straight draws and gutshots possible.
This will typically bring down your betting frequency, because you can’t expect your opponent to fold as often.
Make the board a flush draw too, and that brings in even more hands that will not go away to your bet, so we should see more checking on flush draw flops. When the flop is monotone, frequency will decrease even further. More hands will have flush draws in them on these flops, and you might be betting into a made flush.
It all comes down to fold equity. Fold equity is high when flops are high and/or disconnected. It is lower when the cards are close together, bringing in straight draws, and even lower when flush draws come into the mix.
If you want to learn more about bet sizing and board textures, I have recently put together a free video on the topic, which you get after you join my mailing list.
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Strategic Edge with Dara O’Kearney – Family Pots
When you play live events like the IPT, in the early going, you will see lots of multiway pots. So let’s address a big leak most players have – bluffing too much.
For those most part, this is C-betting too much. Most modern players learned that you print money with C-bets and you should do it all the time. But that’s certainly not the case in family pots.
The more players in the pot, the less often you should bluff.
You are just going to run into somebody with a made hand more often. In soft live games and low stakes online tournaments, it’s hard to expect one player to fold, even tougher to expect multiple players to fold.
When you do bluff, your bluffs need to be drawing to something very strong. You want very strong semi-bluffing hands to nut straights and nut flushes, for example. Basically, the hands that can reliably beat more than one value hand.
In that respect, you are not so much bluffing, but value betting your equity – often you will have more equity than the other two players you are trying to make fold.
Poker is much more honest and orientated around value multiway, it is one of the things that makes multiway strategy simpler to execute than most people realise.The more players there are, the stronger your value has to be, so the stronger your bluffs need to be.
Having said that, there are spots where you can really ramp up your bluffing, which is on the river when all the opponents have capped themselves.
We cover this extensively in my latest course “Multiway Poker Simplified” available at https://simplifypoker.com/courses/multiway-poker-simplified/, but in simple terms, because people play more honestly and value orientated, if none of your opponents have bet by the river, and then they check to you, you can reliably assume nobody has a strong hand.
Old school players have known this forever, these are the ‘Orphan Pots’ that nobody seems to want. You can play very exploitatively in these spots.
You can’t have a semi bluff on the river, but it helps to have a blocker to a very strong hand. A very good candidate for a bluff here is when you river a bad bottom pair type hand. That’s because you block a surprise rivered set, one of the few hands weak players will check/raise a river with.
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Strategic Edge with Dara O’Kearney – Tough FT decision
My cohost and fellow ambassador David Lappin and I recently made the final table of the IPO DUBLIN Super Highroller. With three left, we found ourselves in a race to the bottom as two short stacks trying to outlast each other as chipleader Joe Mullen applied considerable ICM pressure.
Payouts remaining at this point were
3rd – €4900
2nd – €7700
1st – €11,220
when this hand happened.
Button (me) 9.5bbs folds
SB (Joe Mullen) 43.5bbs shoves
BB (Lappin) 7.6bbs and he has A2s
Do you call or fold here?
In ICM spots like this, the two shorties have to play tight against the chipleader (doubling up is nice, but you’ll still be a long way behind the chipleader, so the upside if you call and win is not as significant of the downside of busting in third if you call and lose). By contrast, the two shorties can call each other pretty wide, as the upside is greater (not just a double, but also a ladder or likely ladder).
However, if you keep folding, you’ll inevitably blind down with the other shortie, something ICM doesn’t account for buy another model called Future Game Equity does. So I ran the solve both for ICM and Future Game, and outline the results in this video:
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Dara’s Corner – Should I call this allin?
When you are facing a huge all-in, the first thing I ask myself is simple: do I dominate enough of my opponent’s range? If the answer is yes, I call. If it looks like a flip at best, I prefer to fold.
To make that decision, I work through their range from the bottom up. Start with the hands you crush, then list the hands that crush you, and see which group is bigger. That balance is what decides it for me.
Take a recent example. Under the gun shoved for 40 big blinds and the question was whether to call with Pocket Jacks. On the surface, it looks uncomfortable, because hands like AK and AQ are essentially coinflips against you. But when you break the range down it becomes clearer. A typical population range in this spot might include AK, AQ, AJs and pocket pairs from 99 down to 66. Stronger hands usually raise, weaker ones sometimes limp, so you are left with exactly the sort of hands that can get awkward postflop.
Now look at what Jacks are doing against that range. They dominate the medium pairs and AJs outright. Against AK and AQ you are ahead, but those are essentially flips, so I discount them when thinking about domination. Even if the shover sometimes has Queens, there are still more hands you dominate than hands dominating you, so for me it is a clear call.
This is why I always say that coinflips should be avoided where possible in tournaments. If the range truly is just a flip, I fold. Once domination enters the picture, though, the decision changes completely.
Of course, tournament dynamics matter. At soft tables with a slow structure, you can afford to pass up thin spots because you will find better ones. At tough tables with a bad seat draw, you might need to take the marginal flip simply because opportunities to double up are scarce. In bounty tournaments, flips can even become good spots if doubling up means you cover more opponents and give yourself extra bounty equity.
The trick is knowing which of those contexts you are in, and then weighing up domination versus being dominated. That balance is what turns an apparent coinflip into a profitable call or a prudent fold.
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Laddering Mistakes
When players first learn about ICM, they often overcompensate and it leaves them playing far too tightly. This problem is compounded by the common mistake of thinking that ICM is the same as “laddering”.
Laddering means playing conservatively to try and survive to the next pay jump, the next rung on the payout ladder.
That can be the right approach if a short stack is all-in and you are holding a marginal hand. Folding there could literally earn you money if the short stack busts while you stay out of the way.
The mistake comes when players put too much focus on that single pay jump. If you constantly fold just to survive, the blinds will eventually finish you off.
Let’s look at an example. Below is a final table with the chips in play and the prizes if everyone locked up their current position:
| Player | Chips | Potential Prize |
|---|---|---|
| Alice | 1,000,000 | $10,000 |
| Ben | 600,000 | $7,500 |
| Carla | 400,000 | $5,800 |
| David | 300,000 | $4,000 |
| Emma | 80,000 | $2,800 |
If Emma shoved all-in and Alice re-shoved to isolate, it would be correct for Ben to fold a marginal hand. By folding he could secure the $4,000 payout if Emma went out, locking up an extra $1,200 without playing a hand.
But Ben should not only be thinking about that one jump. He also has to weigh up all the possible finishing positions he could reach.
ICM calculations give us that wider perspective. Here is the breakdown of each player’s chance of finishing in every position:
| Player | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice | 42.0% | 30.2% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 1.3% |
| Ben | 25.2% | 27.9% | 25.3% | 17.3% | 4.3% |
| Carla | 16.8% | 20.9% | 26.2% | 26.8% | 9.3% |
| David | 12.6% | 16.4% | 22.6% | 33.5% | 14.9% |
| Emma | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 14.4% | 70.1% |
Ben is not just preserving the chance to scrape into 4th. He is also protecting the 25.2% of the time he wins outright, the 27.9% of the time he finishes 2nd, and the 25.3% of the time he comes 3rd. In fact, he reaches the top three 78.4% of the time, which is a huge part of the decision whether to challenge Alice early.
For David the decision is not as clear. He is second shortest in chips, and folding here would virtually lock up the 4th place prize. Right now he wins 12.6% of the time, comes 2nd 16.4% of the time and comes 3rd 22.6% of the time. That means he finishes top three 51.6% of the time, but he also ends up 4th or 5th almost half the time.
Most players instinctively believe laddering matters more for David. I would argue the opposite. He has more reason to gamble than Ben, because David is risking far less equity, while Ben is putting much more on the line.
On the money bubble, the shortest stacks are under the most ICM pressure, since almost all their equity lies in the min cash. At a final table, though, it is often the short stacks who can afford to take risks, because they are risking less equity than the middle stacks.
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Q&A with Dara O’Kearney ahead of Killarney 2025
As the countdown to the Killarney Poker Festival 2025 continues, I caught up with Irish poker legend Dara O’Kearney. A former ultra-runner turned poker pro, Dara has travelled the circuit across Europe, but Killarney always holds a special place in his calendar. We talked about the magic of the festival, fitness, endurance, and what he’s most looking forward to this year.
Jerry: Dara, you’ve played poker festivals all over Europe. What makes Killarney such a special stop for you?
Dara: Killarney is special first of all because it’s just such an amazing location. The town is beautiful, the surrounding countryside is beautiful, excellent restaurants, very friendly people. It’s always been a hot bed of poker as well so you get a lot of the locals playing.
Jerry: Killarney is home to a stunning national park. As a former ultra-runner, do you ever get tempted to head out on the trails when you’re in town?
Dara: I have actually run in the national park lots of times I was down there for the poker. It’s a stunning location with the lakes and the castle. My most memorable run was almost a decade ago with EPT winner, Padraig O’Neill a.k.a. Smidge. Smidge is a surprisingly good runner, far better than most poker players I’ve run with. He managed to keep up with me for most of the run and given I’m now almost 10 years older and he’s in better shape than ever I wouldn’t fancy my chances now.
Jerry: How’s your fitness now as you head into Killarney 2025? And what advice would you give poker players about maintaining physical fitness and longevity in the game?
Dara: I went into this year‘s WSOP in better shape than I have been in recent years, but five weeks in the desert really wreaked havoc with my fitness. I only got out for one short run, and five weeks of American food isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered. After getting back from Vegas, I had the Summer in Dublin almost immediately and then shortly afterwards a trip to Birmingham. Since then though I have prioritised getting back into shape. I was horrified on my first 4 mile run to find just how out of shape I was, those 4 miles felt like a marathon. However, since then I’ve run pretty much every day. Most days I run 8 miles and I do one long run a week which is up to 20 miles now. I’ve also focused on eating well and improving my sleep, so while I’m not in as good as shape as I was pre-Vegas I’m back to near my best.
The main advice I give poker players who want to stay fit is to treat the periods between festivals as training. While you should still do your best to get some exercise in and to eat well while you’re playing, it’ll never be possible to be as disciplined while you’re actually playing.
Jerry: The festival has a reputation for being more of a community gathering than just a series of tournaments. How does that unique atmosphere impact the players?
Dara: The festival certainly has a unique atmosphere, which feels very collegial. This has both upsides and downsides. The upsides are that the social aspect is important to everyone, even poker players so it’s not surprising so many look forward to Killarney every year. The potential downside for serious poker players is it can be too easy to get drawn into drinking too much, not getting enough sleep, and generally losing discipline. All of which is fine if your priority is to enjoy yourself, but if your priority is to do as well as you can you have to be careful.
Jerry: Your endurance background is well known. Do you still find those lessons useful when grinding through long live events?
Dara: My endurance is a massive plus when it comes to playing long sessions online and live. That’s the main reason I prioritise it so much when I’m at home I’m now into my 60s, so it’s not getting any easier, but I do think that makes it all the more important if I want to keep operating at the top level for as long as I can into my 60s and beyond. I think you really have to be in shape to have any realistic hope. There are other challenges that come with getting older. For example one thing I haven’t tended to optimise too well down the years especially the poker ones is sleep, but I think that becomes more important as you get older so at the moment I’m putting a lot of effort into improving my sleep hygiene. I’m also taking a more proactive approach to my health, in terms of early testing for any potential problems.
Jerry: This year’s festival has a big partnership with WPT Global, including the OnLive Day 1s. How important do you think online qualifiers are for keeping the live scene growing?
Dara: I think online qualifiers are very important for live events. I also think it works the other way, online satellites for live events can be a gateway to tempt live players into playing online. WPT Global in particular take a very innovative approach to promoting live events. The golden ticket idea is a real winner, and I was delighted to get through the online day one with one. If I’m lucky enough to take down the main event, the extra hundred K will make it all the sweeter.
Jerry: Looking ahead to Killarney 2025, is there one event on the schedule you’re especially excited for, or is it more about reconnecting with the Irish poker community?
Dara: Yes, the one event I’m really looking forward to playing is the women’s event. Just kidding. While Tanya runs the best women’s events out there, I’m not going to make a literal tit of myself by trying to enter.
Apart from the main event, the one event I’m really looking forward to is the mystery bounty. They are always good fun, and I have a good record in mystery bounties, so even though I’ve already bagged up online for day two of the main, I will be travelling down early on the Wednesday in time for the mystery bounty. See you there!
Killarney always brings together the best of Irish poker: world-class tournaments, a beautiful setting, and a community spirit that’s hard to match. Dara’s preparation and passion show why he remains such a force in the game. With the Main Event and Mystery Bounty both on his radar, it’s clear he’ll be one to watch at the 2025 festival.
Don’t forget Livepokerupdates is your hub for the Killarney Poker Festival 2025.
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Multiway pots
Multiway pots are by far the most complex situations in poker. There are so many variables at play that I don’t believe they will ever be fully solved. The presence of multiple opponents drastically changes optimal strategies, forcing players to tighten up, adjust bet sizes, and rethink their approach to bluffing and bluff-catching.
That said, let’s try to break it down into a few key principles that will help you navigate these tricky spots.
1. Tighten Your Value Range
Betting into two or more players means your hand needs to be much stronger to justify a value bet. Unlike heads-up pots, where you can bet hands like second pair for thin value, in multiway pots, these hands are rarely strong enough. You need hands that can stand up to resistance from multiple players, as you’re much more likely to get called.
2. Bluff Less, but Choose Your Bluffs Wisely
Bluffing in multiway pots is significantly more dangerous. The more players involved, the higher the chance that someone has a strong hand and won’t fold. This means you should drastically reduce your bluffing frequency—but when you do bluff, use hands that have the potential to improve to the nuts or near-nut holdings. Strong draws, like nut flush draws or combo draws, make the best bluffs because they allow you to keep applying pressure while having solid equity if called.
3. Reduce Your Bet Sizing
Large bets simplify your opponents’ decisions in multiway pots. If you bet big, they can easily fold weaker hands and continue only with the strongest ones, reducing your fold equity. Instead, using smaller bet sizes keeps their ranges wider, allowing you to extract value from weaker hands while maintaining flexibility in later streets.
4. Bluff-Catching Is Less Necessary
One of the biggest mistakes players make in multiway pots is calling too often with medium-strength hands out of fear of being exploited. The reality is that you don’t need to bluff-catch as much because you share that responsibility with the other players in the hand. When someone bets into multiple opponents, they tend to have a stronger range than they would in a heads-up pot, meaning there’s less reason to hero-call marginal hands.
5. Focus on the Strongest Range at the Table
When navigating a multiway pot, the first thing you should consider is who has the strongest range. In most cases, this will be the preflop raiser or the player who has shown aggression. The Big Blind, who often calls purely based on pot odds, is usually the least concerning opponent, as they will have a much wider and weaker range. Prioritizing the most dangerous opponent’s range will help you make better decisions about when to bet, check, or fold.
Final Thoughts
Multiway poker is a different beast compared to heads-up play, and the strategies that work in standard pots don’t always apply. The key takeaways are to play tighter for value, bluff less but with strong draws, reduce your bet sizing, avoid unnecessary hero calls, and always consider who holds the strongest range.
While multiway spots will never be fully solved, understanding these principles will give you a significant edge over the competition.
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Strategic Edge with Dara O’Kearney
A common strategy that often confuses players is leaving one chip behind when you would otherwise go all-in preflop.
At first glance, it seems pointless—you’re already pot-committed, so why not just shove the last chip in and save time? But there are several strategic reasons why this small move can be beneficial.
Why Leave One Chip Behind?
A Slim Chance to Survive
Occasionally, you’ll get called, see a flop, and lose the hand. If you had gone all-in, you’d be eliminated. But with that one chip left, you still have a (tiny) chance to spin it back up.
Laddering Opportunities
In final table situations, especially with ICM pressure, this tactic can help you move up the payouts. Imagine you have 5 big blinds, bet four of them, and then multiple opponents shove behind you. Now, at least one of them is likely to bust, improving your chances of laddering up the pay scale.
Confusing Opponents
Some players don’t register that you aren’t actually all-in. Without the dealer announcing it, they may see your big bet and fold a hand they would have called against an official all-in. This subtle trick can steal fold equity from your opponents.
ICM Stalling Tactic
In extreme bubble spots—such as satellites—leaving one chip behind is an easy way to buy extra time. It causes hesitation from other players and gives you an additional moment to act once the action returns to you.
Bounty Tournament Strategy
In PKOs, this move forces bigger stacks to re-open the action if they want to claim your bounty. If you bet four big blinds out of five, a big stack can’t just call—they have to raise, often to eight big blinds or more. This can discourage other players from entering the pot or force postflop betting that might push others out, increasing your chances of getting heads-up instead of facing a multiway pot.
The Power of Small Edges
I call this strategy “stealing fold equity.”
In most cases, you’ll still end up all-in, and the final outcome won’t change. But poker is a game of small edges, and this is one of those subtle plays that can add up over time. Now that you understand why it works, it’s a trick worth adding to your game.
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O’Kearney’s strategy corner
A common strategy that often confuses players is leaving one chip behind when you would otherwise go all-in preflop.
At first glance, it seems pointless—you’re already pot-committed, so why not just shove the last chip in and save time? But there are several strategic reasons why this small move can be beneficial.
Why Leave One Chip Behind?
A Slim Chance to Survive
Occasionally, you’ll get called, see a flop, and lose the hand. If you had gone all-in, you’d be eliminated. But with that one chip left, you still have a (tiny) chance to spin it back up.
Laddering Opportunities
In final table situations, especially with ICM pressure, this tactic can help you move up the payouts. Imagine you have 5 big blinds, bet four of them, and then multiple opponents shove behind you. Now, at least one of them is likely to bust, improving your chances of laddering up the pay scale.
Confusing Opponents
Some players don’t register that you aren’t actually all-in. Without the dealer announcing it, they may see your big bet and fold a hand they would have called against an official all-in. This subtle trick can steal fold equity from your opponents.
ICM Stalling Tactic
In extreme bubble spots—such as satellites—leaving one chip behind is an easy way to buy extra time. It causes hesitation from other players and gives you an additional moment to act once the action returns to you.
Bounty Tournament Strategy
In PKOs, this move forces bigger stacks to re-open the action if they want to claim your bounty. If you bet four big blinds out of five, a big stack can’t just call—they have to raise, often to eight big blinds or more. This can discourage other players from entering the pot or force postflop betting that might push others out, increasing your chances of getting heads-up instead of facing a multiway pot.
The Power of Small Edges
I call this strategy “stealing fold equity.”
In most cases, you’ll still end up all-in, and the final outcome won’t change. But poker is a game of small edges, and this is one of those subtle plays that can add up over time. Now that you understand why it works, it’s a trick worth adding to your game.
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O’ Kearney’s Corner – Thin Value Bets
One of the most common struggles players face is mastering thin value bets.
Some only bet when they’re certain they have the best hand—but that’s not a thin value bet. Others confidently bet when ahead, but in spots where all worse hands would fold. That’s not thin value either.
A true thin value bet happens when your hand is slightly ahead more than half the time when called.
This means you’ll sometimes get called by better hands. But in the long run, especially at low stakes, these bets add up to profit.
Strong players consistently find thin value bets.
Average players, on the other hand, fear getting check-raised. They’d rather check back and avoid the discomfort, even when betting is correct.
A common objection I hear is that opponents won’t call with worse hands in these spots. If that’s the case—fantastic. It means you should be bluffing them relentlessly.
If you often check back the river only to see your opponent reveal a hand that could have made a losing call, you’re missing thin value bets.
If you feel relief when the hand is over, it’s time to reframe your thinking. Your reaction should be, “Damn, I missed a thin value bet.”
Yes, good players will occasionally check-raise bluff you. And sometimes, you’ll get called by a better hand. But in the long run, failing to find thin value bets is leaving money on the table.
Mastering thin value bets is a key skill that separates great players from the rest. It’s uncomfortable at first, but once you develop the right mindset, it becomes second nature. Instead of fearing check-raises or bad calls, focus on making the best long-term decision. If you aren’t already pushing the limits of thin value, start now—you’ll be surprised at how much extra money you pick up.
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