Strategic Edge with Dara O’Kearney – Tough FT decision
My cohost and fellow ambassador David Lappin and I recently made the final table of the IPO DUBLIN Super Highroller. With three left, we found ourselves in a race to the bottom as two short stacks trying to outlast each other as chipleader Joe Mullen applied considerable ICM pressure.
Payouts remaining at this point were
3rd – €4900
2nd – €7700
1st – €11,220
when this hand happened.
Button (me) 9.5bbs folds
SB (Joe Mullen) 43.5bbs shoves
BB (Lappin) 7.6bbs and he has A2s
Do you call or fold here?
In ICM spots like this, the two shorties have to play tight against the chipleader (doubling up is nice, but you’ll still be a long way behind the chipleader, so the upside if you call and win is not as significant of the downside of busting in third if you call and lose). By contrast, the two shorties can call each other pretty wide, as the upside is greater (not just a double, but also a ladder or likely ladder).
However, if you keep folding, you’ll inevitably blind down with the other shortie, something ICM doesn’t account for buy another model called Future Game Equity does. So I ran the solve both for ICM and Future Game, and outline the results in this video:
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